Brazil Elections.. Bolsonaro Leads Lula and Both Advance to a Runoff

The right-wing candidate Flavio Bolsonaro and the leftist president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualified on Monday for a runoff in the Brazilian presidential elections, after Bolsonaro led the first round but failed to secure the absolute majority needed to win outright.

With the votes counted, Flavio led with over 47% compared to about 45% for the current president Lula. According to election laws, a candidate must exceed 50% to win in the first round, which was not achieved in the first round.

Bolsonaro said after the results were announced: "I am very happy with these results because they showed that the Brazilian people want change."

In contrast, Lula da Silva described the results as "unexpected" and said: "I was convinced of my ability to win the election in the first round."

He added: "We will start a new election campaign from tomorrow."

The competition brings to mind the 2022 elections, in which Lula won by a narrow margin against Flavio's father, former president Jair Bolsonaro, who is currently serving a 27-year prison sentence after being convicted of plotting to overturn the results of that election and prevent Lula from taking office.

Bolsonaro enters the runoff as the favorite, according to analysts' estimates, likely benefiting from the transfer of votes from other eliminated right-wing candidates, including Ronaldo Caiado, who received 2.2%, and Renan Santos, who garnered the same percentage.

The results showed that the southern states, which lean towards Bolsonaro, announced their results at a faster pace, while the votes in Lula's stronghold in the northeast of the country were counted more slowly.

Brazilians head to the polls on Sunday in a heated presidential election between Lula da Silva and Flavio Bolsonaro, with the possibility of a runoff on October 25.

Analysts told Reuters that they believe Flavio received "protest votes" from voters who voted against Lula, rather than in support of the right-wing senator, and these votes were expected to be retained until the second round.

The senator's victory in the second round would expand the wave of victories across Latin America achieved by right-wing candidates whose approach aligns with that of U.S. President Donald Trump, while Lula's election for a new term could disturb Washington, which disagrees with his government on trade and security.

Despite growing concerns about Brazil's public finances and slowing economic growth, the election campaign has only offered limited political debate, with both leading candidates absent from the main televised debates.

Polls showed until Saturday that Lula is likely to lead the first round but will enter a runoff, while Flavio expressed confidence to reporters in Rio de Janeiro about winning the presidency in the first round, relying on the frustration of voters towards his main opponent.

Flavio said he is counting on "protest votes from people who would have voted for another candidate, but are opposed to Lula." He added: "I hope that will be enough to ensure victory in the first round."

Tais Lima, a 41-year-old lawyer on her way to vote in Sao Paulo, stated that her main goal is to remove the Workers' Party led by Lula from power.

She added: "I don't think Flavio is the best candidate, but I might decide to vote for him in the next few minutes," noting that she wished the psychiatrist and writer Augusto Cury was a more competitive candidate.

Fernando Temple, a 49-year-old management consultant, told Reuters that he voted for Flavio even though he initially intended to vote for Romeo Zema, the former governor of Minas Gerais.

On the other hand, Lula's allies warned that the Trump administration might refuse to recognize the election results if he wins, pointing to a failed attempt to send U.S. officials to Brazil.

Lula said after casting his vote in São Bernardo do Campo in São Paulo state: "The future of Brazil is at stake."

Trump has not officially endorsed any candidate, but he hosted Senator Flavio Bolsonaro at the White House and publicly praised him.

Cristiano (34 years old), a doctor in Brasilia, said: "I am a little worried about everything that is happening lately, including on the international level.. I feel that this election has seen a significant external influence, more than previous elections."

Pedro Palacio (45 years old), who was voting in Brasilia with his wife Andrea, their children, and their dogs, all wearing clothes with pro-president signs, said: "We are confident in our president Lula, who will fight for national sovereignty."

Reuters reported on Wednesday that Brazilian intelligence officials briefed delegations from France and Germany on allegations of American and Russian interference before the elections. The United States denied the accusations of interference in Brazilian affairs.